The Home Secretary’s announcement that most overseas students will not be able to bring dependants to the UK from January 2024 could mean 40-50,000 carers leaving the sector in just a few months.
International student enrolments at UK universities have increased dramatically in recent years.  The combined effect of one-year masters programmes, a new post-study work (GIR) visa and the ability to bring dependants has seen numbers increase by more than 40% since 2017/18.  In 2022, 463,000 student visas were issued along with 136,000 visas for dependants. The majority of the increase in students and dependants has been from West African (4.5x) and South Asian (6x) geographies, where opportunities to study and work overseas are particularly attractive and labour market participation during and after study is generally high.  Many of these students and their dependants have found work in social care sector while studying and/or after graduation.
The decision to bar dependants will immediately remove a group of people from the labour market but its ultimate impact will be much greater. Unable to bring dependants to the UK, many students will simply not come, looking instead to Australia, Canada or other European destinations. This will take a further group out of the labour market. Those who do come may choose not to stay on, not wanting to be separated from their family while they work under the two-year GIR visa. This will have a further impact. Finally, one of the main drivers of increased enrolments in recent years has been the GIR visa itself. But to sponsor dependants under the GIR visa, they must have first come to the UK as a dependant under a student visa. This week’s announcement then will make it effectively impossible for a dependant to be in the UK under a GIR visa. The result will be much lower demand for GIR visas popular with students and providers.
What will this mean for providers?
International students in the UK looking for work have provided a cushion for many ASC providers in the wake of Covid.
45% of all students work while studying. That number is higher among many groups of overseas students. It is thought around 1/5 of all working students work in social care, meaning 40-50,000 workers could be taken out the ASC workforce very quickly – more than 5% of the total number of carers. Losing them will mean the number of unfilled posts could quickly grow, increasing dependency on bank and agency staff, rapidly adding to costs.
With 7 months until the change, ASC providers have time to plan ahead and put a permanent solution in place – bringing in workers via the Skilled Worker Visa route.
Overseas workers who come to the UK under the skilled worker visa offer much higher rates of retention, experience and skills, and have always been a better option for providers building long term workforce sustainability and the best possible experience for people using their services.
If Student Visa changes will affect your team, BA Healthcare can help. We have been bringing nurses, seniors and carers from The Philippines for 23 years – the first choice of employers seeking ethical, affordable lasting staffing solutions, we work with providers, care associations and public bodies across the UK and are proud to partner with the Institute of Health & Social Care Management.
IHSCM members benefit from a free consultation and preferential rates on our fees. Call or email us today.
0114 3830929 or rsc@ba-healthcare.org
